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What's Going On In The Market?


The S&P 500 fell 2.2% in October.  At its late month worst, the index was down nearly 11% from its summer highs.  My repeated warnings the last few months of weak trading under the surface certainly proved true. 


That said, last month I also mentioned, "it's awfully tough to see lasting market moves lower with sentiment already this negative."  Sure enough, a furious late October/early November rally has already lifted the index nearly 7% allowing it to recover more than 1/2 of its fall sell-off losses.  What's more, that final week of October saw numerous breadth thrust indicators trigger including another Zweig Breadth Thrust.  Adding fuel to the already smoldering fire is a reversal in the sentiment of a Barron's survey of "large money" managers, not to mention data around NYSE short interest, margin debt, Nasdaq vs NYSE volume, Investor's Intelligence surveys, AAII surveys, retail money market funds and put/call ratios. Do I expect most readers will know what many of the data points mentioned even are?  No, I don't, but notice none of the indicators I described say something about a Wall Street Journal article, watching CNBC, or Jim Cramer.  Of course no data point, study, or indicator is infallabe so we'll remain on watch.  However, for now, I've already taken the opportunity the sell-off provided to reposition portfolios.  Investment management clients, of course, can see their portfolios any time via Schwab.com

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